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An imaginative mandate PDF Print E-mail
Monday, 13 June 2011 04:41

It is Jayalalitha in the south, Mamata in the east, Maya in the west, and Sonia above.

It is definitely change that the people of India voted in this summer in five states, more than anything else, but not just for the sake of change. We don't quite empathise with what Cyrus says, it is not just about woman power, it was a decisive vote in Tamilnadu and West Bengal, a vote against corruption and political brinkmanship. It just so happened, two exceptional women gave leadership to this momentum for change.

Kerala has traditionally voted alternately for a Left-led (LDF) and Congress-led (UDF) government, unlike past years, this May the voters in Kerala did not vote strongly against incumbency, which is why the elections in Kerala has been a cliff hanger.

In Assam too, it was not a vote against the ruling party just for change, the vote was decisively in favour of the Tarun Gogoi government's policies. In the union territory of Puducherry, N Rangaswamy is a rebel Congressman, the vote was not so much against the Congress, but to see that the pro-DMK V. Vaithilingam government is ousted.

Everywhere, the personalities involved were colourful and larger than life, and everywhere, it was not what each of them had achieved or promised or represented --the vindication was overwhelmingly for what they opposed in these elections. Let us look at each of these states to see what happened, and possibly the early lesson that can be drawn from the vote by about 15 crore voters in India.

If anyone says, the country has shown active anti-Congressism, it would be wrong. Assam, Kerala and West Bengal prove otherwise. The vote has not been in favour of either the BJP or its allies, nor for regional parties.Nor for the Left or particularly against the Left, as seen in Kerala and Tamilnadu.

Tamilnadu:
It would feel terrific for Media Voice to be able to say, we told you so. But the truth is, no one, not even MV saw the silent wave of anger that swept through the populace. In a House of 234, no one saw the DMK, the oldest Dravidian and regional party get just 28 seats, no one saw deputy chief minister M. K. stalin winning by less than 3000 votes, no one saw the Indian National Congress with a traditional 20% voteshare get just five seats. The AIADMK's 199 seats was beyond imagination, and why did this happen is a story psephologists will recount for long.

Puducherry:
In this union territory the assembly has just 30 seats. This has been known as the see-saw state in the past. Anyone with 11 seats, could be ina coalition and rule. Independents had major saw in government formation and destabilisation.

The ruling Congress this time won just 9 votes.

The vote in Puducherry has to be read along with the vote in Tamilnadu. Though a Congressman, V. Vaithilingam was known to be close to the DMK. While it has been okay to talk about 'coalition dharma', the Chief Minister's pro-DMK stance was too well-known. The Congress infighting in Puducherry stemmed from pro-DMK and pro-AIADMK rivalries. Rebel Congress leader N. Rangaswamy won 20 seats, far above the 11 needed to stake claim to form government.

People in the union territory, like elsewhere, voted against corruption, this time represented by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. As such pro-DMK Vaithilingam and DMK ally, the Congress, were given less votes than the pro-AIADMK N. Rangaswamy faction.

Assam:
Assam had a Congress government in the 2006-2011 period, led by Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. The assembly here has 126 seats, of which the ruling Congress has won 78 seats, demonstrating more than two thirds majority. The BJP had tied up with the Asom Gana Parishad but they have won 5 and 10 seats respectively. Tarun Gogoi is chief minister for a third consecutive term. This says something about governance in Assam that the Gogoi government has offered. Assam, known in past decades for insurgency of the worst kind (ULFA and other groups), for horrendous communal riots, crimes like kidnapping, ransoms, extortions, has been relatively peaceful since 2001. This peace has meant some infrastructure growth, some economic activity, which can be said to be better than ever before. People want to go on with their lives, that is why such a positive mandate for the Gogoi-led Congress.

Kerala:
If the results had followed the last decade's pattern, the UDF would have come to power with a lead of at least 25-30 seats. In a House of 140 seats, that the ruling Left Democratic Front won 68 seats, shows that the vote was not anti-incumbent, people were not particularly unhappy with the LDF rule, and certainly not with V.S. Achyutanandan.

That the Congress led UDF won 72 seats shows, there was no wave against the Left and in favour of the Congress. The voting here was on caste lines, the Christian and Muslim votes consolidated to get the Congress/ UDF the numbers. The Left's traditional vote bank has remained intact, with Hindus voting equally for the Left and the Congress. This is why the narrow margine of four seats between the two fronts.

Definitely, for the Oomen Chandy-led UDF government, the main issue in the coming years will be that of stability. Loss of support of just two MLAs can rock the UDF government. If that happens, the LDF can allege the Chandy government is unstable and stake claim. In this scenario, the Governor will be obliged to ask the single largest party to form government. The Congress has won only 32 seats in the UDF combine, the CPI(Marxist) has won 54 seats in the LDF combine. So, technically, it is the CPM's right to form government.

The UDF knows it is standing on a rocky boat, and the Left is not likely to let it float.

West Bengal:
The assembly here has 234 seats, of which 184 went to the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC). Though the TMC has not been averse to being a part of the National Democratic Alliance, basically it has been a splinter group of the Congress, Rajiv Gandhi had especially chosen Mamata to lead the West Bengal Youth Congress, at a time when the Left was deeply entrenched in the state. To be able to at last sweep away 34 years of Left rule in West Bengal is a 'historic ' achievement. The Left front won just 62 seats, Mamata thrice that number. Mamata is a maverick politician and will be a chief minister for the first time, How she will perform, what she will deliver is unknown yet.

With this vote, the people of West Bengal, have sent out a clear message, and this message is not just for the Left. In the whole of India, this was the only State that for 34 years, voted the same parties to power, giving the Left a historic opportunity to show the world the model governance Marxists talk of on paper. It gave the Left, uninterrupted 34 years to show the world what an ideal political administration could have been. But at last, people realised that the present Left in India is incapable of delivering. It is just this is why TMC has been given a chance to demonstrate deliverables. Mamata's success will have to be measured by this. The Left has said, it will not let her govern without atough fight.

In all the five states, the vote has been for democracy, against nepotism, against corruption and for good governance.

The Silent Revolution

In the 21st Century India, good governance cannot be weighed against corruption. The was amply demonstrated by the electorate, in Tamil Nadu electing a leader, who has started good governance from Day one. If Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, represented by M Karunanidhi and his relatives, had thought that their feudal mindsets, policies of blatant nepotism and playing the caste cards, when it suited them, would translate into a vote bank, they were mistaken.

The people of Tamil Nadu exercised their democratic right to vote out corruption in the DMK government. This time around, first time voters—voters who turned 18 years and who are aware of what is happening in the country, had voted. This was no Facebook revolution; this was a seething that was happening. This was a storm that was meant to blow out the dark times of fear instilled by the corrupt government.

The anger of being cheated by the elected representatives was not going to be taken by one must especially remember that the age of the voting population is less than 50 years, with almost 80% literacy, 40% of voters in this south Indian state are non-Tamils and nearly 80% of those eligible to vote, voted.

A quick recap of the recent past shows us that even before the 2G-spectrum allocation scam in telecommunications broke, there was an uneasy feeling among people in Tamil Nadu that the DMK government they had voted to power in 2006 had agendas that were not in keeping with popular sentiment.

The Sethusamudram Ship Canal project was one. Fishing communities, environmentalists, shipping experts, all opposed it. But more than that it hurt the religious sentiments of the majority community in the country.

The people of Tamil Nadu did not forget the DMK doublespeak on the Lankan Tamil issue in 2008-2009, when thousands of Tamils sufferedas Sri Lanka waged an annihilating war on the LTTE. But the crowning shame was the 2-G scam.

When the 2-G scam broke in 2008, while no one envisioned the scale of the corruption, that a DMK minister, a protégé of Murasoli Maran and M. Karunanidhi, should be accused of stealing public assets was enough to set the alarm bells ticking.

When daughter M. Kanimozhi was made a Rajya Sabha MP, expectations were, she would focus on women's empowerment and thereby give a new direction to DMK policy. That did not happen. Instead, the land was rife with stories of land deals in Chennai and several tier-two cities, of prices MLAs and MP nominees had to pay to the mother, who controlled party nominations.

What happened in Tamil Nadu the deep involvement of the entire first family in the business of films and entertainment, real estate and politics. Everything had a price; everyone, including famous movie stars had a price to pay.

It is this scam funding that led to the floating of Kalaignar Television and shareholding interest in the channel by Dayalu, Kanimozhi's mother, Rajathi, Stalin and Azhagiri's mother, and Kanimozhi herself. Corporate majors who benefited from the spectrum allocation funded all this. Quid pro quo indeed!

In the age of television and literacy, people may not be able to count the zeros in the 2G scam, but the general perception was of huge amount of stealing. The 'freebies' that the DMK doled out, in lieu of development was looked upon as a small amount of the big something that was stolen.

For AIADMK leader J.Jayalalithaa, her statements and vision have translated into votes and thereby a government of the people and for the people. Still, when there were fears of manipulation by the then government, the Chief Election Officer ensured that a fair polling was given to the people of Tamil Nadu. Jayalalithaa made sure that she joined hands with the Sarathkumar-founder of AISMK, whose manifesto projects growth. AIADMK also allied with actorpolitician Vijayakanth's DMDK. Today, the democratic results speak for themselves. The election results showed that in a House of 234, the DMK just got 28 seats and its ally the Congress got 5 seats.

The AIADMK leader J. Jayalalithaa's campaign focused on this. "Throw out the corrupt". She was right in her vision invited Jaylalithaa to a tea party, reminding us of another tea party which ended in a chill. Every DMK MP in Parliament, especially Rajya Sabha members like Kanimozhi, is dependent on support of MLAs.

That said the future of the oldest Dravidian party is in jeopardy. Having failed the people and amassing vast amounts of wealth at the cost of development. Today, DMK needs to introspect, not just on its electoral defeat. But on the fact, whether it is an entity ready to be under the thumb of one man, one man's family or is it a political party of members who join, elect leaders and fight fair elections.

People know that good governance is their due. It is their due from an elected government. And that people have chosen a new direction to go with is now the sign of times to come.

By Deepa Srinivasan and Papri Sri Raman

 

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