Has the Congress taken on a charismatic chief ministerial candidate by inducting actor Chiranjeevi into the party, even as the stability of the Kiran Kumar Reddy government is challenged by the ambitious Y. S. Jaganmohan Reddy? Satyaraju K examines the situation.

Has the Congress taken on a charismatic chief ministerial candidate by inducting actor Chiranjeevi into the party, even as the stability of the Kiran Kumar Reddy government in Andhra Pradesh is challenged by ambitious political greenhorn Y. S. Jaganmohan Reddy?At one stroke, the Congress has made Jagan and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi redundant by the merger of the PRP.

Stalling of Parliament over a plethora of scams is not the only storm the Grand Old Party, the Indian National Congress, faces this summer. Trouble brews for it in several States, among them West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

The two-months-old Kiran Reddyled Congress government had been put on notice by Y. S Rajashekar Reddy's family, who claim to have the support of at least 20 MLAs. The merger of the Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) with the Congress on February 6 gives the GoP its 18 MLAs, a coup Congress manager Veerappa Moily can take credit for. The Congress has called it an "acquisition", not a merger, and what a good business it has proved to be.

which had 155 members in a House of 294, need no longer fear a Jagan-led split as the PRP MLAs have given it a strength of 173, far over and above the majority required in the House. At the same time, the Congress has forced the 11 TRS MLAs to rethink which side they want to be on, with the Congress or against it.

There is one vacant seat caused by the resignation of YSR's widow and Congress MLA Y.S. Vijaya Laxmi from Pulivendula assembly segment, which may soon see the main Congress pitted against the Jagan faction. The ruling Congress is aware that it just requires 148 MLAs formar majority in the assembly for providing a stable government.

For months, the Congress rode on a sympathy wave following the sudden death of popular Chief Minister Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy just after 100 days into his second term as the chief minister of AP. However, successionbattles within the GoP pushed the Konijeti Rosaiah government, that followed YSR, out within 14 months of its rule. In office now is the younger and energetic Kiran Reddy, but for how long, pundits did not want to predict in early February. For the firsttime in its short tenure, the Reddy government is now safe.

The Reddy government came into being at a very crucial stage in the life of Andhra Pradesh, at a time when it is struggling to retain its present identity. The statehood issue for Telangana has entered its finals phase of struggle with the Justice B.N. Srikrishna Committee report (submitted on December 30, 2010) suggesting as many as six options for determining statehood for undivided Andhra.

The Union Home Ministry has already declared that an early decision will be taken on the issue. Recognized political parties have been given the report submitted by the Commission and requested to arrive at a possible "way forward". On Valentine's Day, February 14, the six weeks of time sought by the Ministry to convene an all-party meeting on Telangana ended.

The UPA government is led by the Congress party, which has 205 MPs. The BJP has about 125 MPs in the Lok Sabha and has been demanding the formation of Telangana State.

The problem for the ruling Congress in Andhra Pradesh is the growing dissidence within the party due to the demand for Telangana and the MLAs siding with Jaganmohan, the former MP from Kadapa, who resigned from the Congress and now says he intends to set up his own political outfit.

With several first timers among the Congress MLAs owing allegiance to the late YSR, many of them have been unsure of their political future and have begun shuttling between the official Congress and the camp preparing to leave the Congress to work under Jagan's leadership. The show of strength repeatedly exhibited by Jagan Reddy had become a vehicle for these MLAs to indicate where their loyalties lay. If all the five to six MLAs, seen sharing the dais with Jagan on several occasions even after his exit from the GoP, were to be taken into account, the crisis in the Congress legislative party seemed serious, but Cheeru has helped the GoP avert this.

Absence of a regular Speaker: The Speaker's importance in the State assembly has been amply demonstrated in Karnataka recently. The Constitution is silent on a Deputy Speaker in the Tenth Schedule dealing with disqualification laws. The Andhra Pradesh Assembly has no Speaker at present, as no one has been elected yet to occupy the post Kiran Reddy vacated on becoming Chief Minister. The winter session was presided overby the incumbent Deputy Speaker. However, in a crisis situation, the Deputy Speaker's power over disqualification issues is ambiguous, at best. And at any point in time, the dissident elements may challenge the Deputy Speaker with a no-confidence motion. The different factions fuelling dissidence are:

The Jagan camp : The Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy group has several fixed options to go about their job in diminishing the Congress might in Andhra Pradesh.

The Jagan camp has to firstly ensure that its nominees win over the official GoP candidates in the elections for the seats vacated by Jagan and his mother Vijayamma. Secondly, it has to successfully project the Reddy government as incapable of resolving problems faced by the State and its people. Thirdly, Jagan needs to prevent any sort of concrete decision on the formation of the Telangana State. Fourthly, Jaganmohan has to divert the attention of the people from the alleged corruption charges that are now being levelled against the late YSR government. Lastly, Jagan has to ensure that the Congress is weakened substantially. At the same time, he has to prevent Opposition parties like the TDP from taking advantage of a weakened Congress party.

The differences within the Congress over the Telangana issue came to the fore recently when Jaganmohan, along with some party members, joined a TDP protest in Parliament against the decision to carve out a separate State from Andhra Pradesh. Jaganmohan stormed the well of the House, joining the TDP members there, carrying placards saying, 'We want united AP'. Jaganmohan also borrowed a placard from them, as they shouted slogans in support of a united Andhra Pradesh.

At the same time, there are conflicting reports that Jagan is planning to join hands with K. Chandrashekhar Rao to ensure that his interests are safe in the Telangana region. There are indications that there is a strategic understanding between the two, KCR will concentrate on Telangana and Jagan on Andhra and the Rayalseema regions. Meanwhile, Jagga Reddy, the Congress MLA from Sangareddy, is taking on KCR directly.

The TRS party: The Telangana Rashtra Samithi has no clue to what really is likely to happen on the issue of Telangana State, even after the Srikrishna Commission report is out. The TRS is suspicious about the Congress strategy on Telangana.

After ten years of having its core demand as the formation of Telengana State and a promise of merging itself with the Congress on attainment of this goal, the TRS suddenly finds itself with a different agenda – to create a platform for the KCR family and a succession battle.

K.Chandrashekhar Rao's stock has lowered considerably in recent times, as he has admitted that it would take another six months for a separate Telangana State to happen. The big question on every lip is, why is KCR trying to postpone the agitation and decision on a separate State ? Why is he playing the Centre's consensus game?

The Congress is aware of the TRS' dilemma and the Congress leadership is said to be no longer interested in seeking TRS support. Now, the single point agenda of the State Congress has become to weaken the TRS and usurp the Telangana issue for itself.

The TDP factor: The twin issues of Telangana and Jagan Reddy have been hurting the interests of the 29-year-old TDP. Nara Chandrababu Naidu, once known as the most organized politician, is at a crossroads, unable even now to overcome the shock of the 2009 electoral defeat, despite an alliance with the Left and the TRS. The satisfaction of bagging 90 plus seats and outsmarting the TRS in the Telangana region have been short lived.

Naidu's anti-Telangana stand is well known and there has been speculation that he agreed with the late YSR on an united AP. In 2009, Naidu had played politics to urge the Congress to expedite the formation of a Telangana State, not ever believing the Congress would let it happen. However, with the possibility of Telangana looming large, Naidu has to once again spell out his position on Telangana, especially now that dissident elements like Nagam Janardhan Reddy are regrouping to form a Telagana TDP.

The TDP chief has blamed the Congress for creating trouble in other parties over the Telangana issue. "The Congress is enacting a drama and creating an impression that the issue is in the hands of Opposition parties", Naidu said. Insisting that the TDP has not gone back on the resolution it adopted on Telangana, Naidu added, "it is for the Congress to take a decision on the matter". It is well-known that Naidu had stopped the earlier NDA government from creating a separate Telangana State, though the BJP has been for it.

The BJP: If there is any political party that is dreaming big in talking about small States, it is the BJP. Having been deserted by the TDP, a bitter BJP is now determined to capture one more State in South India, and that may well be the future Telangana.

The party has made steady progress in the interiors of Telangana by espousing the cause of Telangana more vociferously than even the TRS. There are no two voices in the BJP, unlike in every other party, about its stand on Telangana.

The BJP has even Muslim support on Telangana. It is just that they have to look for some one like Naqvi or Shahnawaz Hussain to make their presence even more acceptable. The biggest advantage for the BJP has been its strength in Parliament and the vacillating stand of the Congress on the issue. Now, whatever the Congress says, the BJP stands to benefit either way.

The CPI: The biggest surprise in the State's politics is the "way forward" chosen by Communist Party of India. The party is strong in Khammam and Nalgonda districts. Now its influence is spreading in Karimnagar and its neighbourhood, especially due to the refreshing position Left leaders like Narayanan have taken on Telangana.

Come March, the Congress has to eventually reassess its position vis-a-vis all other political parties in Andhra Pradesh and chalk a new path, if it wants to hold on to the State - or States - and take on a resurgent pro-Telangana BJP

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