At a time when the political climate is mired in scams, four Indian States, Tamilnadu, Kerala, West Bengal and Assam, and Union Territory Puducherry are going for assembly polls. With power sharing talks and poll deals taking more than usual time, the ballot heat took some time to seep into the electorate. Media Voice brings you the mood.

The Indian National Congress, leading the UPA II government in New Delhi, has begun to look at elections in the States as safe deposit assets that it can draw upon in the future.

political scenario, it not only wants to test its strength at a time when it knows that 50 per cent of the country will be below 40 years by 2020. It also knows that it no longer has a clue to what actually is the electorate thinking. The World Watch Institute, Washington, says half of India’s adults are illiterate, more than half of its children are undernourished, and a third of its people live below the poverty line, that is, 400 million are poor. At the same time, there is a report which says by 2015, 400 million people will be 3G telecom services users. So, which party people vote into power demonstrates more than the people’s political propensities. Only the party that can meet aspirations will finally govern. In Uttar Pradesh in the 2007 assembly elections, the Congress fought virtually alone, contesting 393 seats out of the 403 in the House and winning 22. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party took 206 seats, clearly telling the Congress that it had lost much of its traditional Dalit and Muslim vote banks. The Congress, nevertheless, claimed it had tasted success and with both the Lok Sabha seats of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi in this State, major attention is being paid to this State in terms of development funding for the 2012 elections here.

In the Bihar assembly there are 243 seats. In November 2010 the Congress again went alone, contesting all the 234 seats. The Grand Old Party won just four seats, while Nitish Kumar’s JDU won 115 and his ally, the BJP, 91. Here again, the lesson for the Congress was that the electorate cared little about ideology. If the development card could be convincingly played, people did not mind the religious plank of a constituent in the winning combine. Six months later, the Congress is looking at election strategies in five States, four of which are big States.

In Assam, the assembly has 126 seats of which the Congress occupies 53. The ruling party here is sure it can better this tally and its alliance with Muslim parties will help the United Democratic Front led by it come to power again in May 2011. Anti-incumbency is no factor here. Assam is a State with a long and porous boarder with Bangladesh from where hundreds of climate refugees come into India every year. The actual electorate size here is never in headlines, but Tarun Gogoi’s government has managed to keep it fed and communal riots-free in the last five years. The Union government, as well as the State government, have also begun talks with the biggest militant sectarian outfit in the north-east, the ULFA, releasing many of its leaders from Indian jails. The ULFA’s anti-Indian activity is supported by China and buying peace in these border areas is important for India to be able to maintain its military positions in the jungles and hill tracts of the north-east. Development can be pushed from the Indian side only if militancy is contained.

West Bengal again is a populous State, where development itself is mired in controversy. It has a House of 295 (one nominated) members and this State has been ruled by a CPI (Marxist)- led coalition, the Left Front since 1977, for 34 years. In the 2006 elections the Front won 233 seats. The Congress attempt is to break this Left grip, with the help of a splinter group, the Trinamool Congress, led by maverick politician Mamata Bannerjee, who is also India’s railway minister. Her TC controls 30 seats and the Congress alliance 24. In the last four years Mamata has fiercely opposed the CPI (M)’s industrialisation plan, especially in rural areas like Nandigram and Singur. However, it is development and industry that Trinamool and its ally, the Congress, are again offering in these very same areas, to oust the Left. While the Congress was sanguine six months ago that Mamata’s agitational tactic will work this time, it cannot erase quickly the taint of the scams that have rocked it at the Centre. It cannot escape the embarrassment caused by exposures on 2G, the Commonwealth Games and the Adarsh housing society, among others. With an aware, literate and politically motivated electorate, whether the Congress-Trinamool will succeed in routing the entrenched Left Front from West Bengal is now a big question.

In Kerala, another Left-ruled State, the UDF alternates in power with the Left Democratic Front, a coalition led again by the CPI (M). The assembly has 140 seats and the LDF holds 99 of these. As many as 56 seats switch sides every every years and the Congress-led UDF has been banking on this to power its victory this May. However, the Congress dream of a comeback may not come true here this time as, in a highly literate and politicised State, the shadow of corruption charges against the Congressled UPA II as well as State Congress leaders may weigh considerably with the voters.

While the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam has alternated in government in Tamilnadu with the ruling DMK several times, this time the DMK had hoped to continue to be in power for another five years. It had reposed faith in what it felt was a formidable alliance with the Congress. The voter may decide otherwise and bring the AIADMK back to power, as it has done before. The Congress sees itself as the king-maker in this South Indian State, claiming to hold at least 20% of vote share. The House here has 234 seats, with the DMK holding 100. The dole politics of the Dravidian giant has worked, the Congress feels. Central grants have also nurtured a friendly electorate. At one point of time, six months ago, the Congress was even mulling trying its strength alone in Tamilnadu. However, the Congress image here is now tainted by virtue of association with its ally, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, at whose door the 2G spectrum scam has been laid. In the forthcoming battle of the ballot, the Congress-DMK strength is expected to be substantially diminished. The Congress may increase its seats from the 34 it holds now, and its power-sharing dreams may come true at last, if the DMK’s seatshare reduces dramatically. The dilemma for the Congress here is that a DMK rout may spell a Congress rout, postelections. Puducherry is a tiny Union Territory with 30 assembly seats. The Congress here holds 11 seats while the DMK here holds seven seats. Here again, the DMK and AIADMK rule in turns, forminggovernments with Congress support. The State Congress, like in Tamilnadu, is however faction-ridden and may find the 2011 elections indecisive and forced toreconsider alliances after the elections.

Six months ago the Congress was dreaming of a positive show of strength in these major State elections, this strength may not be the six pack ab it hoped for, following all the scams the party and its allies are dogged with.

By Papri Sri Raman